tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-520807396714463309.post157549099166523437..comments2024-02-12T02:22:30.561-05:00Comments on The Lousy Linguist: On Statistical AnomaliesChrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09558846279006287148noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-520807396714463309.post-29857857231966625672010-04-02T13:35:46.342-04:002010-04-02T13:35:46.342-04:00Anonymous, yep, you're right. I see your logic...Anonymous, yep, you're right. I see your logic. <br /><br />I guess I was thinking about the odds of being dealt three specific hands in a row. If I'm correct, the fact of their being consecutive in a number line are irrelevant to the odds that they'll be dealt on any given hand; it's just the fact of their being specified ahead of time (hence narrowing down the requirements as you say). Is that correct?<br /><br />I think the point I wanted to make was that people have an illusion that poker hands that are related in a number line like 22, 33, 44 are somehow less probable to be dealt near each other in a sequence of hands than those that are not, when in fact, it is irrelevant. The number are just symbols printed on a card.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09558846279006287148noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-520807396714463309.post-21513173115597628532010-04-02T11:25:37.689-04:002010-04-02T11:25:37.689-04:00The probability of being dealt any three pairs in ...The probability of being dealt any three pairs in a row is not the same as being dealt three consecutive pairs in a row.<br /><br />On any given hand, you have a 6% chance of being dealt a pair as your hole cards (first card at 100%, then the match of 3 out of the remaining 51 cards; the other players' cards are irrelevant as you have no information about them). 6% x 6% x 6% = 0.02% chance of drawing any three pair in a row. A small, but hardly earth-shattering chance of occurring.<br /><br />But with three consecutive pair, the first hand narrows the range required for the next two, thus the odds are considerably smaller. The first hand is the same 6%, any pair will do (assuming you count AA-22 as consecutive). But for the second hand, you must draw one of four cards out of 52 (8%), then one of three cards out of 51 (6%), for a combined probability of 0.5%. You must do this again for the third hand, yielding a total odds of 6% x 0.5% x 0.5% = 0.00015%. <br /><br />Note these are the odds for a given set of three hands. But given the number of poker hands played worldwide each day, it probably happens a few hundred times a day. And if you play enough, the odds that it will happen to you at some point in your gambling career will be rather high.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com